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The Shrinkage of Point Scoring Methods

J. B. Copas
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics)
Vol. 42, No. 2 (1993), pp. 315-331
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
DOI: 10.2307/2986235
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2986235
Page Count: 17
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The Shrinkage of Point Scoring Methods
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Abstract

Point scoring, widely used in criminology and other social sciences, is a simple way of predicting a binary response on the basis of binary explanatory variables. Like all statistical predictors they are liable to shrinkage, working less well on a validation sample than they appear to do on the original data. The paper examines the extent of shrinkage and proposes shrinkage-adjusted predictions. The related `independence Bayes' method is also considered, and found to shrink more than the basic point scoring method. The results are applied to data from a cohort study in the development of delinquency.

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