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Long Term Trend Projections as an Aid to Management

Madge Dugdale
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician)
Vol. 20, No. 3, Forecasting in Practice (Sep., 1971), pp. 45-54
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
DOI: 10.2307/2986797
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2986797
Page Count: 10
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Long Term Trend Projections as an Aid to Management
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Abstract

This paper deals with problems encountered in trying to fit mathematical line projections to the trends of available data and in combining these projections into an objective forecast of the most probable developments which may affect retail trade over the next ten, twenty and thirty years. It discusses the development of a method originally intended to produce a long term forecast of the grocery and provision market, with two specific uses: i) to discover what economic levels will result if all projected trends continue unchanged; and ii) to be modified as soon as there is a change in the current trend of any of the projected component series.

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