Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If You Use a Screen Reader

This content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.

The Vote-Stealing and Turnout Effects of Ross Perot in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election

Dean Lacy and Barry C. Burden
American Journal of Political Science
Vol. 43, No. 1 (Jan., 1999), pp. 233-255
DOI: 10.2307/2991792
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2991792
Page Count: 23
  • Read Online (Free)
  • Subscribe ($19.50)
  • Cite this Item
Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
The Vote-Stealing and Turnout Effects of Ross Perot in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election
Preview not available

Abstract

Including abstention as a choice in vote choice models enables one to calculate the vote-stealing and turnout effects of third-party candidates. A model of the vote including abstention also produces parameter estimates and marginal effects for some explanatory variables that differ from the results of a model that excludes abstention. We present two multinomial probit models of vote choice in the 1992 U.S. presidential election. One model includes abstention as a choice; the other does not. The model that includes abstention reveals that Ross Perot increased turnout by nearly three percentage points in 1992, and his candidacy decreased Clinton's margin of victory over Bush by seven percentage points. Under compulsory voting, Clinton's margin of victory barely increases, and Perot's vote share remains nearly constant.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
[233]
    [233]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
234
    234
  • Thumbnail: Page 
235
    235
  • Thumbnail: Page 
236
    236
  • Thumbnail: Page 
237
    237
  • Thumbnail: Page 
238
    238
  • Thumbnail: Page 
239
    239
  • Thumbnail: Page 
240
    240
  • Thumbnail: Page 
241
    241
  • Thumbnail: Page 
242
    242
  • Thumbnail: Page 
243
    243
  • Thumbnail: Page 
[244]
    [244]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
245
    245
  • Thumbnail: Page 
246
    246
  • Thumbnail: Page 
247
    247
  • Thumbnail: Page 
248
    248
  • Thumbnail: Page 
249
    249
  • Thumbnail: Page 
250
    250
  • Thumbnail: Page 
251
    251
  • Thumbnail: Page 
252
    252
  • Thumbnail: Page 
253
    253
  • Thumbnail: Page 
254
    254
  • Thumbnail: Page 
255
    255