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Stable Incidence Rates of Tuberculosis (TB) among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Negative South African Gold Miners during a Decade of Epidemic HIV-Associated TB

Elizabeth L. Corbett, Salome Charalambous, Katherine Fielding, Tim Clayton, Richard J. Hayes, Kevin M. De Cock and Gavin J. Churchyard
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Vol. 188, No. 8 (Oct. 15, 2003), pp. 1156-1163
Published by: Oxford University Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/30075727
Page Count: 8
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Stable Incidence Rates of Tuberculosis (TB) among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Negative South African Gold Miners during a Decade of Epidemic HIV-Associated TB
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Abstract

During the last decade, annual tuberculosis (TB) case-notification rates increased 4-fold, to >4000 cases/100,000 person-years, in the study workforce, among whom prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was 30% in 2000. Three separate cohort studies, totalling 6454 HIV-negative participants, were combined and analyzed for time trends. Observed incidence of TB varied between 962 (1991-1994) and 1589 (1999-2000) cases/100,000 person-years (P = .17, test for trend). There was, however, a progressive increase in age, and, for each period, older age was associated with increased incidence rates of TB (P<.OOl). Having adjusted for age differences, there was no significant association between incidence of TB and calendar period (P=.81, test for trend). Relative to 1991-1994, multivariate-adjusted incidence-rate ratios were 0.94, for 1995-1997, 0.96, for 1998-1999, and 1.05, for 1999-2000. Preventing a secondary epidemic of TB among HIV-negative individuals maybe achievable with conventional means, even in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB.

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