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A Method for Pooling Forecasts

L.-E. Öller
The Journal of the Operational Research Society
Vol. 29, No. 1 (Jan., 1978), pp. 55-63
DOI: 10.2307/3009406
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3009406
Page Count: 9
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A Method for Pooling Forecasts
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Abstract

A group of experts is to produce a joint forecast of a set of unknowns. Each expert is asked to distribute subjectively a given sum of confidence weights over his own forecasts. A joint forecast is computed as the product sum of the individual forecasts and weights deduced from the individual's weights. A probabilistic interpretation of this procedure is provided and a measure of the reliability of the joint forecasts is suggested. A Bayesian variant can be constructed by introducing sample information.

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