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Exponential Smoothing with an Adaptive Response Rate
D. W. Trigg and A. G. Leach
Vol. 18, No. 1 (Mar., 1967), pp. 53-59
Published by: Operational Research Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3010768
Page Count: 7
You can always find the topics here!Topics: Signals, Error rates, Response rates, Analytical forecasting, Forecasting models, Signal noise, Time series forecasting, Linear models, Coefficients, Statistical variance
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A modification is proposed to forecasting systems employing exponential smoothing whereby the response rate is varied and made to depend on the value of a tracking signal. In a simple system, this is equivalent to varying α the smoothing constant according to the extent to which biased forecasts are being obtained. Such a system is shown to react much faster to, for example, step changes whilst still retaining the facility to filter out random noise.
OR © 1967 Operational Research Society