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Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note

Karl DeRouen, Jr.
International Studies Quarterly
Vol. 44, No. 2 (Jun., 2000), pp. 317-328
Published by: Wiley on behalf of The International Studies Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3014000
Page Count: 12
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Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note
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Abstract

This study represents an attempt at further developing the diversionary theory of force. The analysis covers the period 1949 to 1994 using a simultaneous system of equations that treat presidential approval and force as endogenous variables. After controlling for opportunities and Soviet/Russian crisis behavior, the model reveals a rally effect and that unemployment has a positive effect on force levels. I discuss how presidential decisions to divert are made in the context of poliheuristic decision processing.

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