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Positive Feedback, Memory, and the Predictability of Earthquakes
C. G. Sammis and D. Sornette
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Vol. 99, No. 3, Supplement 1: Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences. Sackler Colloquium on Self-Organized Complexity in the Physical, Biological, and Social Sciences (Feb. 19, 2002), pp. 2501-2508
Published by: National Academy of Sciences
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3057585
Page Count: 8
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We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities." The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America © 2002 National Academy of Sciences