Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

The Potential Size and Duration of an Epidemic of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in British Sheep

R. R. Kao, M. B. Gravenor, M. Baylis, C. J. Bostock, C. M. Chihota, J. C. Evans, W. Goldmann, A. J. A. Smith and A. R. McLean
Science
New Series, Vol. 295, No. 5553 (Jan. 11, 2002), pp. 332-335
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3075812
Page Count: 4
  • More info
  • Cite this Item
The Potential Size and Duration of an Epidemic of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in British Sheep
Preview not available

Abstract

Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), we examined the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed, and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in the United Kingdom showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Although there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low; however, a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
332
    332
  • Thumbnail: Page 
333
    333
  • Thumbnail: Page 
334
    334
  • Thumbnail: Page 
335
    335