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Estimating Leakage from Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs
Brian C. Murray, Bruce A. McCarl and Heng-Chi Lee
Vol. 80, No. 1 (Feb., 2004), pp. 109-124
Published by: University of Wisconsin Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3147147
Page Count: 16
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Leakage from forest carbon sequestration-the amount of a program's direct carbon benefits undermined by carbon releases elsewhere-depends critically on demanders' ability to substitute non-reserved timber for timber targeted by the program. Analytic, econometric, and sector-level optimization models are combined to estimate leakage from different forest carbon sequestration activities. Empirical estimates for the United States show leakage ranges from minimal (< 10%) to enormous (> 90%), depending on the activity and region. These results suggest that leakage effects should not be ignored in accounting for the net level of greenhouse gas offsets from land use change and forestry mitigation activities.
Land Economics © 2004 Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System