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Pre-Test-Market Models: Validation and Managerial Implications

Glen L. Urban and Gerald M. Katz
Journal of Marketing Research
Vol. 20, No. 3 (Aug., 1983), pp. 221-234
DOI: 10.2307/3151826
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3151826
Page Count: 14
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Pre-Test-Market Models: Validation and Managerial Implications
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Abstract

The predictive accuracy of a widely used pre-test-market model (ASSESSOR) is analyzed. The standard deviation between pre-test-market and test-market shares is 1.99 share points before adjustments for achieved awareness, distribution, and sampling and 1.12 share points after adjustment. Sixty-three percent of those products tested passed the pre-test screen and 66% of these were subsequently successful in test market. A Bayesian decision analysis model is formulated and a "typical" case shows a positive value of information. Although some conditions are identified under which a test market may be bypassed, in the authors' opinion both pre-test and test-market procedures should be used in all but exceptional situations.

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