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The Periodicity of Endemic Malaria
Journal of Applied Probability
Vol. 11, No. 3 (Sep., 1974), pp. 562-567
Published by: Applied Probability Trust
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3212700
Page Count: 6
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In many endemic areas the level of infection of malaria exhibits a regular cycle. A stochastic model is formulated to describe endemic malaria and is used to justify a set of deterministic equations. The model incorporates the properties peculiar to malaria, i.e., in endemic areas malaria is not usually fatal and an individual can be and usually is reinfected. The theory of small oscillations is applied to the deterministic equations, and under the assumption of stable populations of hosts and vectors an expression is obtained for the period of oscillation of the infection.
Journal of Applied Probability © 1974 Applied Probability Trust