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The Area under the Infectives Trajectory of the General Stochastic Epidemic
Journal of Applied Probability
Vol. 9, No. 2 (Jun., 1972), pp. 414-417
Published by: Applied Probability Trust
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3212809
Page Count: 4
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If the cost of an epidemic is a linear function of the number of persons infected at any time, the total cost depends upon the area under the infectives trajectory. This note uses a combinatorial argument to show that for the general stochastic epidemic the distribution of this area may be expressed in terms of the probabilities of the ultimate size of the epidemic.
Journal of Applied Probability © 1972 Applied Probability Trust