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The Final Outcome and Temporal Solution of a Carrier-Borne Epidemic Model

Frank Ball and Damian Clancy
Journal of Applied Probability
Vol. 32, No. 2 (Jun., 1995), pp. 304-315
DOI: 10.2307/3215290
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3215290
Page Count: 12
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
The Final Outcome and Temporal Solution of a Carrier-Borne Epidemic Model
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Abstract

We consider a stochastic model for the spread of a carrier-borne epidemic amongst a closed homogeneously mixing population, in which a proportion 1-π of infected susceptibles are directly removed and play no part in spreading the infection. The remaining proportion π become carriers, with an infectious period that follows an arbitrary but specified distribution. We give a construction of the epidemic process which directly exploits its probabilistic structure and use it to derive the exact joint distribution of the final size and severity of the carrier-borne epidemic, distinguishing between removed carriers and directly removed individuals. We express these results in terms of Gontcharoff polynomials. When the infectious period follows an exponential distribution, our model reduces to that of Downton (1968), for which we use our construction to derive an explicit expression for the time-dependent state probabilities.

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