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Asymptotic Analysis of the General Stochastic Epidemic with Variable Infectious Periods

A. N. Startsev
Journal of Applied Probability
Vol. 38, No. 1 (Mar., 2001), pp. 18-35
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3215738
Page Count: 18
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Asymptotic Analysis of the General Stochastic Epidemic with Variable Infectious Periods
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Abstract

A generalisation of the classical general stochastic epidemic within a closed,homogeneously mixing population is considered, in which the infectious periods of infectives follow i.i.d. random variables having an arbitrary but specified distribution. The asymptotic behaviour of the total size distribution for the epidemic as the initial numbers of susceptibles and infectives tend to infinity is investigated by generalising the construction of Sellke and reducing the problem to a boundary crossing problem for sums of independent random variables.

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