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A Megamayor for All People? Voting Behaviour and Electoral Success in the 1997 Toronto Municipal Election

Hannah Stanwick
Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue canadienne de science politique
Vol. 33, No. 3 (Sep., 2000), pp. 549-568
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3232582
Page Count: 20
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
A Megamayor for All People? Voting Behaviour and Electoral Success in the 1997 Toronto Municipal Election
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Abstract

In the 1997 municipal election, Mel Lastman defeated Barbara Hall to become the first mayor of the new megacity of Toronto. The two candidates had distinctly different styles and platforms, and each appealed to a particular demographic. Multiple regression techniques are used to determine the impact of voter turnout, incumbency and various socio-economic factors on Lastman's and Hall's success rates across Toronto's 28 wards. Turnout, incumbency, the relative size of the immigrant population and the tenancy rate in each ward are found to be significant determinants of their respective vote shares. Some evidence is found to suggest that education level was also a factor. /// Lors des élections municipales de 1997, Mel Lastman a défait Barbara Hall et est devenu le premier maire de la nouvelle mégapole de Toronto. Les deux candidats avaient des programmes et des styles différents et leurs supporteurs provenaient de couches distinctes de la population. Cet article utilise des techniques de régression multiple afin de vérifier si le niveau de participation des électeurs, le fait pour les candidats d'avoir occupé des fonctions dans les conseils municipaux sortants et divers facteurs socio-économiques ont influencé les taux de succés de Lastman et Hall dans les 28 circonscriptions de Toronto. Il montre que le niveau de participation, le statut professionnel et le poids relatif des immigrants et des locataires ont été des déterminants significatifs de la répartition des votes. Certaines données indiquent aussi l'influence du niveau d'éducation.

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