Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election

Michael W. Traugott
The Public Opinion Quarterly
Vol. 69, No. 5, Polling Politics, Media, and Election Campaigns (2005), pp. 642-654
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3521565
Page Count: 13
  • Download ($42.00)
  • Cite this Item
The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election
Preview not available

Abstract

The 2004 presidential election campaign provided a venue for a wide variety of polling, and it was not without its controversies. In the end, the final estimates of the preelection polls, the bread and butter of the polling industry, were very good at suggesting it would be a close race, with Bush the likely winner. In historical perspective, the overall performance was above average for the period since 1956. Issues raised in the media leading up to the end of the campaign and the final estimates, however, created some controversy, especially about the likely voter methodology used by different organizations. There were also some anomalies at the end of the campaign as some firms and collaborators ended up producing different estimates of the outcome depending on likely voter definitions or the mode of data collection.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
[642]
    [642]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
643
    643
  • Thumbnail: Page 
644
    644
  • Thumbnail: Page 
645
    645
  • Thumbnail: Page 
[646]
    [646]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
[647]
    [647]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
648
    648
  • Thumbnail: Page 
649
    649
  • Thumbnail: Page 
650
    650
  • Thumbnail: Page 
651
    651
  • Thumbnail: Page 
652
    652
  • Thumbnail: Page 
653
    653
  • Thumbnail: Page 
654
    654