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The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election
Michael W. Traugott
The Public Opinion Quarterly
Vol. 69, No. 5, Polling Politics, Media, and Election Campaigns (2005), pp. 642-654
Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3521565
Page Count: 13
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The 2004 presidential election campaign provided a venue for a wide variety of polling, and it was not without its controversies. In the end, the final estimates of the preelection polls, the bread and butter of the polling industry, were very good at suggesting it would be a close race, with Bush the likely winner. In historical perspective, the overall performance was above average for the period since 1956. Issues raised in the media leading up to the end of the campaign and the final estimates, however, created some controversy, especially about the likely voter methodology used by different organizations. There were also some anomalies at the end of the campaign as some firms and collaborators ended up producing different estimates of the outcome depending on likely voter definitions or the mode of data collection.
The Public Opinion Quarterly © 2005 American Association for Public Opinion Research