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Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?

Andrew K. Rose
The American Economic Review
Vol. 94, No. 1 (Mar., 2004), pp. 98-114
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3592771
Page Count: 17
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Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?
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Abstract

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements-the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard "gravity" model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over 50 years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns from outsiders, though the GSP seems to have a strong effect.

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