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Demography of HIV/AIDS

Alberto Palloni
Population Index
Vol. 62, No. 4 (Winter, 1996), pp. 601-652
DOI: 10.2307/3646371
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3646371
Page Count: 53
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Demography of HIV/AIDS
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Abstract

This paper has two goals. First, it provides an account of the current state of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, with special emphasis on the situation in the developing world, where the bulk of new cases is arising, and where the effects of the epidemic are likely to be most devastating. An attempt is made to evaluate forecasts and projections made during the past 10 to 15 years, and to examine the reasons for their relatively unsatisfactory performance. The second goal is to analyze the relation between the known characteristics of the epidemic, and the properties of the various demographic and epidemiological models that have been used to represent the spread of the virus. Some fault lines in these models are identified, and ways to improve them and apply them more effectively in the future outlined.

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