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Journal Article

A Population Model of the Endangered Hawaiian Dark-Rumped Petrel

Theodore R. Simons
The Journal of Wildlife Management
Vol. 48, No. 4 (Oct., 1984), pp. 1065-1076
Published by: Wiley on behalf of the Wildlife Society
DOI: 10.2307/3801768
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3801768
Page Count: 12
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A Population Model of the Endangered Hawaiian Dark-Rumped Petrel
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Abstract

A Leslie matrix model (Leslie 1945, 1948) was used to evaluate the vulnerability of the endangered Hawaiian dark-rumped petrel (Pterodroma phaeopygia sandwichensis) population to factors currently threatening its survival. These factors include predation by introduced mammalian predators, fledgling mortality due to light-induced groundings in urban areas, and fluctuations in reproductive success. Input parameters for the model were derived from a 3-year study of the bird's breeding biology and estimates from the literature. The simulations demonstrate that the population is sensitive to small reductions in adult survival and reproductive success. Consistent predation similar to that experienced by the population in 1979 could drive it to extinction in 20-30 years. The survival of these K-selected birds depends upon their continual protection from predators and other unnatural sources of mortality. The model has been helpful in estimating the current structure and dynamics of the population and in determining management priorities for the species.

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