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"Draining the Sea": Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare
Benjamin Valentino, Paul Huth and Dylan Balch-Lindsay
International Organization
Vol. 58, No. 2 (Spring, 2004), pp. 375-407
Published by: Cambridge University Press on behalf of the International Organization Foundation
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3877862
Page Count: 33
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Abstract
Why do some wars result in the intentional killing of large numbers of civilians? In this article we examine the incidence of mass killing in all wars from 1945 to 2000. In the statistical analysis of our data set of 147 wars, we find strong evidence supporting our hypothesis that mass killing is often a calculated military strategy used by regimes attempting to defeat major guerrilla insurgencies. Unlike conventional military forces, guerrilla armies often rely directly on the local civilian population for logistical support. Because guerrilla forces are difficult to defeat directly, governments facing major guerrilla insurgencies have strong incentives to target the guerrillas' civilian base of support. We find that mass killing is significantly more likely during guerrilla wars than during other kinds of wars. In addition, we find that the likelihood of mass killing among guerrilla conflicts is greatly increased when the guerrillas receive high levels of active support from the local population or when the insurgency poses a major military threat to the regime.
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International Organization © 2004 International Organization Foundation