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Mass Vaccination to Control Chickenpox: The Influence of Zoster
Neil M. Ferguson, Roy M. Anderson and Geoff P. Garnett
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Vol. 93, No. 14 (Jul. 9, 1996), pp. 7231-7235
Published by: National Academy of Sciences
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/39566
Page Count: 5
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The impact of transmission events from patients with shingles (zoster) on the epidemiology of varicella is examined before and after the introduction of mass immunization by using a stochastic mathematical model of transmission dynamics. Reactivation of the virus is shown to damp stochastic fluctuations and move the dynamics toward simple annual oscillations. The force of infection due to zoster cases is estimated by comparison of simulated and observed incidence time series. The presence of infectious zoster cases reduces the tendency for mass immunization to increase varicella incidence at older ages when disease severity is typically greater.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America © 1996 National Academy of Sciences