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Forecasting Credit Hours

David Bivin and Patrick Michael Rooney
Research in Higher Education
Vol. 40, No. 5 (Oct., 1999), pp. 613-632
Published by: Springer
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40196375
Page Count: 20
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Forecasting Credit Hours
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Abstract

This paper employs Tobit to estimate retention probabilities and credit hours at two universities. The innovation is that this technique examines credit-hour choice with the decision to depart the university treated as the choice of zero credit hours. Tobit is appropriate for this problem because it recognizes the lower bound of zero on credit hours and incorporates this bound into the parameter estimates and forecasts. Models are estimated for credit hours in a single year and cumulative hours over a six-year horizon.

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