Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If You Use a Screen Reader

This content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.

What Will the Likely Range of My Wealth Be?

Raymond Kan and Guofu Zhou
Financial Analysts Journal
Vol. 65, No. 4 (Jul. - Aug., 2009), pp. 68-77
Published by: CFA Institute
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40390197
Page Count: 10
  • Read Online (Free)
  • Subscribe ($19.50)
  • Cite this Item
Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
What Will the Likely Range of My Wealth Be?
Preview not available

Abstract

The median is often a better measure than the mean in evaluating a portfolio's long-term value. The standard plug-in estimate of the median, however, is too optimistic. It has a substantial upward bias that can easily exceed a factor of 2. This article provides an unbiased forecast of the median of a portfolio's long-term value. It also provides an unbiased forecast of an arbitrary percentile of a portfolio's long-term value distribution, which enables the construction of the likely range of a portfolio's long-term value for any given confidence level. The article offers an unbiased forecast of the probability of a portfolio's long-term value falling within a given interval. The article's unbiased estimators give a more accurate assessment of a portfolio's long-term value than do traditional estimators and are useful for long-term planning and investment.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
68
    68
  • Thumbnail: Page 
69
    69
  • Thumbnail: Page 
70
    70
  • Thumbnail: Page 
71
    71
  • Thumbnail: Page 
72
    72
  • Thumbnail: Page 
73
    73
  • Thumbnail: Page 
74
    74
  • Thumbnail: Page 
75
    75
  • Thumbnail: Page 
76
    76
  • Thumbnail: Page 
77
    77