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Ein Beitrag zum Verständnis von Krelles Makromodell

Jürg Niehans
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv
Bd. 92 (1964), pp. 238-258
Published by: Springer
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40436146
Page Count: 21
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Ein Beitrag zum Verständnis von Krelles Makromodell
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Abstract

In his "Verteilungstheorie," Krelle presents a macro-model designed to explain production, employment, prices, growth rates, and distribution in terms of a large number of parameters. By varying these parameters one by one he obtains their "influence" on the dependent variables. Due to the large number of variables and relations the model is inevitably very complex and the analysis becomes hard to follow. This may be one of the reasons why up to now Krelle's experiment has not found the attention it seems to deserve. This paper is an effort to make visible the basic parts of Krelle's intricate growth engine and to show their interactions. Consideration of these interactions leads to the conclusion that the question of stability may be of crucial importance. While certain numerical values of the various parameters yield stable solutions others would result in unstable equilibria. The parameters used for short-term analysis are probably selected from the stable range. They also agree well with what one would expect on the basis of general macro-economic theory. That Krelle's short-term model leaves no scope for the possibility that wage increases may stimulate production is probably just a consequence of his particular choice of parameters. For the long-range model, however, it seems likely that Krelle picked his parameter values from the unstable range. This would easily explain why most of his results are the opposite of what one would be inclined to expect. These results would then offer no clue to the behaviour of the real world. These conclusions are admittedly tentative, for the model is too intricate for an outside reader to arrive at more definite results.

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