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On the Gompertz Process and New Product Sales: Some Further Results from Cointegration Analysis

Ali F. Darrat
Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics
Vol. 39, No. 1 (Winter, 2000), pp. 49-56
Published by: Creighton University
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40473283
Page Count: 8
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On the Gompertz Process and New Product Sales: Some Further Results from Cointegration Analysis
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Abstract

This paper reevaluates Franses' (1994) recent cointegration and error-correction analysis of the Gompertz process for new product sales. I find that Franses' results in support of the Gompertz process and its implied cointegration relation questionable due to his use of inappropriate statistical methods. Stronger and more recent testing procedures reject Franses' inferences and yield no compelling evidence of cointegration in the data. Results from out-of-sample forecasts provide further evidence bolstering the central conclusion of the paper.

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