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A Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Likelihood of Introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Strain H5N1 into U.S. Hunter Retriever Dogs

C. Lane, B. Tameru, D. Nganwa, T. Habtemariam, B. Asseged, V. Robnett and S. Wilson
Avian Diseases
Vol. 54, No. 1, Supplement: Proceedings of the Seventh International Symposium on Avian Influenza (March 2010), pp. 699-706
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40601144
Page Count: 8
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
A Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Likelihood of Introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Strain H5N1 into U.S. Hunter Retriever Dogs
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Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain H5N1 has received great attention with regard to its potential spread to North America. This quantitative risk assessment, which is primarily based on wild bird carriage of HPAI from East Asia to Alaska, was conducted to assess the likelihood of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected after harvesting an infected waterfowl during the Alaskan hunting season. Using Monte Carlo Simulation with @Risk software, the expected probability of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected is 2.3 X 10⁻⁸. This model can serve as a tool for decision makers in assessing the risk of HPAI strain H5N1 introduction into Alaska's hunter retriever dogs. Los virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógenos subtipo H5N1 han recibido una gran atención con respecto a su posible propagación a América del Norte. Esta evaluación cuantitativa del riesgo que está basada principalmente en la movilización del virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógeno por aves silvestres desde el este de Asia hasta Alaska, fue realizada para evaluar la posibilidad de que un perro cobrador de cacería pudiera infectarse después de recolectar aves acuáticas infectadas durante la temporada de caza en dicho estado. Mediante una simulación tipo Monte Carlo con el programa computacional @Risk, se determinó que la probabilidad esperada de la infección de perros cobradores de cacería es de 2.3 X 10⁻⁸. Este modelo puede servir como una herramienta para la toma de decisiones en la evaluación del riesgo de introducción de influenza aviar altamente patógena subtipo H5N1 en perros cobradores de cacería en Alaska.

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