Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If You Use a Screen Reader

This content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.

Sobre as perspectivas demográficas no Sul de Portugal: o declínio da fecundidade: aplicação do método de Coale

J. Manuel Nazareth
Análise Social
Segunda Série, Vol. 11, No. 41 (1975), pp. 31-66
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41008173
Page Count: 36
  • Read Online (Free)
  • Subscribe ($19.50)
  • Cite this Item
Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Sobre as perspectivas demográficas no Sul de Portugal: o declínio da fecundidade: aplicação do método de Coale
Preview not available

Abstract

A variável-chave do dinamismo demográfico — cujas relações com o dinamismo económico e social são complexas, mas nem por isso menos fundamentais— é a fecundidade das populações. Estudando essa variável no Sul de Portugal, segundo o método de Coale, verifica-se que ela está submetida a um movimento de declínio, detectável desde os começos do século. Os efeitos de tal declínio na evolução da estrutura populacional não podem deixar de ser considerados muito preocupantes. Ora nem a emigração, nem certas variáveis — como a urbanização e o desenvolvimento económico — que noutros contextos se tem provado terem profundos efeitos na baixa da fecundidade, parecem ser, neste caso, factores relevantes para a explicação do declínio verificado. Esta terá de ser procurada através do estudo das relações entre variáveis sociais e variáveis demográficas. E só tal estudo, que é urgente, permitirá determinar os factores sobre os quais haverá que intervir para evitar que o « celeiro de Portugal » se transforme no « deserto (ou no asilo) de Portugal ». La variable-clef du dynamisme démographique — dont les rapports avec le dynamisme économique et social sont complexes, pourtant pas trop moins fondamentaux — est la fécondité des populations. En analysant cette variable au sud du Portugal, d'après la méthode de Coale, on constate qu'elle est soumise à un mouvement de déclin, qu'on peut déceler depuis les débuts du siècle. On ne saurait pas laisser d'en considérer fort préoccupant. Or ni l'émigration ni les autres variables — l'urbanisation et le développement économique, par exemple, que, dans d'autres contextes, ont des effects profonds sur la chute de la fécondité, on l'a prouvé — semblent être, dans ce cas, des facteurs importants pour l'explication du déclin constaté. Cette explication doit être cherchée par l'étude des rapports entre les variables sociales et les variables démographiques. Seulement une telle étude, qui est pressante rendra possible la détermination des facteurs sur lesquels on devra intervenir pour éviter que le « grenier du Portugal » ne devienne le « désert (l'‘asile’) du Portugal ». Tehe main variable of demographic dynamics — the relationship of which with the economic and social dynamics is complex but none the less fundamental for that — is the fertility of populations. Studying this variable, according to Coale's method, in the southern Portugal, one concludes that it is undergoing a fall movement, ascertainable after the beginning of this century. The effects of such a fall upon the evolution of the population structure are nothing but worrying. Neither emigration nor other variables (such as urbanization and economic development) — that, in other contexts, as it is proved, have deep effects upon the fall of fertility — seem to be, in this case, factors relevant for the explanation of the fall referred to. The explanation must be looked for through the study of the connections between social variables and demographic variables. Only such a study, that it is urgent, will make possible to ascertain the factors with which one must interfere in order to avoid changing the « granary of Portugal » into the « desert (or 'asylum') of Portugal ».

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
31
    31
  • Thumbnail: Page 
32
    32
  • Thumbnail: Page 
33
    33
  • Thumbnail: Page 
34
    34
  • Thumbnail: Page 
35
    35
  • Thumbnail: Page 
36
    36
  • Thumbnail: Page 
37
    37
  • Thumbnail: Page 
38
    38
  • Thumbnail: Page 
39
    39
  • Thumbnail: Page 
40
    40
  • Thumbnail: Page 
41
    41
  • Thumbnail: Page 
42
    42
  • Thumbnail: Page 
43
    43
  • Thumbnail: Page 
44
    44
  • Thumbnail: Page 
45
    45
  • Thumbnail: Page 
46
    46
  • Thumbnail: Page 
47
    47
  • Thumbnail: Page 
48
    48
  • Thumbnail: Page 
49
    49
  • Thumbnail: Page 
50
    50
  • Thumbnail: Page 
51
    51
  • Thumbnail: Page 
52
    52
  • Thumbnail: Page 
53
    53
  • Thumbnail: Page 
54
    54
  • Thumbnail: Page 
55
    55
  • Thumbnail: Page 
56
    56
  • Thumbnail: Page 
57
    57
  • Thumbnail: Page 
58
    58
  • Thumbnail: Page 
59
    59
  • Thumbnail: Page 
60
    60
  • Thumbnail: Page 
61
    61
  • Thumbnail: Page 
62
    62
  • Thumbnail: Page 
63
    63
  • Thumbnail: Page 
64
    64
  • Thumbnail: Page 
65
    65
  • Thumbnail: Page 
66
    66