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Eleições de segunda ordem e ciclos eleitorais no Portugal democrático, 1975-2004

André Freire
Análise Social
Vol. 40, No. 177, Eleições de segunda ordem: Portugal no contexto internacional (2005), pp. 815-846
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41012234
Page Count: 32
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Eleições de segunda ordem e ciclos eleitorais no Portugal democrático, 1975-2004
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Abstract

Esta investigação explora as relações entre o comportamento eleitoral dos portugueses nas eleições legislativas, locais e europeias no período de 1975-2004. Examinase a evolução do sistema partidário e dos níveis agregados de volatilidade em diferentes tipos de eleições. A nivel individual, comparam-se as determinantes sociais e políticas das opções partidárias em diferentes tipos de eleições. Testamos as teorias sobre ciclos eleitorais comparando os resultados eleitorais agregados de diferentes tipos de eleições em períodos diversos do ciclo eleitoral e utilizando como ponto de partida os vencedores de cada uma das eleições legislativas precedentes. A principal conclusão é que as relações entre as eleições de segunda ordem e de primeira ordem reflectem não só os efeitos a curto prazo, mas também os efeitos a longo prazo. Cette recherche explore les rapports entre le comportement électoral des portugais aux élections législatives, municipales et européennes au cours de la période 1975-2004. Elle examine l'évolution du système partisan et des niveaux agrégés de volatilité dans différents types d'élections. Elle compare, au niveau individuel, les déterminantes sociales et politiques des options partisanes dans ces élections. Nous avons testé les théories sur les cycles électoraux, en comparant les résultats électoraux agrégés des différents types d'élections dans des périodes diverses du cycle électoral, et en utilisant comme point de départ les vainqueurs de chaque élection législative précédente. La principale conclusion tirée est que les rapports entre les élections de second ordre et de premier ordre reflètent non seulement les effets à court terme, mais aussi les effets à long terme. This research explores the relationships between the electoral behaviour of the Portuguese in parliamentary, local and European elections in the period from 1975 to 2004. It looks at the development of the party system and at aggregate volatility levels in different types of election. For individual voters it compares the social and political factors affecting voter choice of party in different types of election. We tested theories on election cycles by comparing the overall electoral results of different types of election at different periods of the election cycle, taking as our point of departure the winners of each of the preceding parliamentary elections. The main conclusion is that the relationships between second-tier and first-tier elections reflect not only short-term effects, but also long-term ones.

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