Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

Electricity Price Forecasting through Transfer Function Models

F. J. Nogales and A. J. Conejo
The Journal of the Operational Research Society
Vol. 57, No. 4 (Apr., 2006), pp. 350-356
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4102386
Page Count: 7
  • Subscribe ($19.50)
  • Cite this Item
Electricity Price Forecasting through Transfer Function Models
Preview not available

Abstract

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naive and other techniques.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
[350]
    [350]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
351
    351
  • Thumbnail: Page 
352
    352
  • Thumbnail: Page 
353
    353
  • Thumbnail: Page 
354
    354
  • Thumbnail: Page 
355
    355
  • Thumbnail: Page 
356
    356