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COHORT SIZE AND FERTILITY AMONG BLACKS AND WHITES: US COHORT BORN BETWEEN 1905 AND 1954

M.D.R. EVANS
International Review of Modern Sociology
Vol. 20, No. 1 (Spring 1990), pp. 89-103
Published by: International Journals
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41420966
Page Count: 15
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
COHORT SIZE AND FERTILITY AMONG BLACKS AND WHITES: US COHORT BORN BETWEEN 1905 AND 1954
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Abstract

This paper analyzes the fertility of US cohorts of whites and blacks born between 1905 and 1954. It develops multivariate autoregressive models of the affects of cohort size on key aspects of fertility. The models include unemployment to investigate the possibility of indirect effects, and they control for educational attainment, women's labor force participation, economic growth, farm origins, foreign origins, and contraceptive diffusion. The results show that the effects of cohort size on fertility differ by race. Cohort size has quite small effects on the fertility of whites, but larger and more pervasive effects on the fertility of blacks. This difference may reflect the concentration of blacks in stagnant sectors of the labor market.

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