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CRESCITA CON CICLO, GESTAZIONE DEI PIANI DI INVESTIMENTO ED EFFETTI DI POPOLAZIONE

LUCIANO FANTI and PIERO MANFREDI
Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali
Anno 105, No. 1 (Gennaio-Marzo 1997), pp. 69-95
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41623940
Page Count: 27
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CRESCITA CON CICLO, GESTAZIONE DEI PIANI DI INVESTIMENTO ED EFFETTI DI POPOLAZIONE
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Abstract

Following a Goodwin-type growth cycle model, this paper investigates the effects of a time delay between planning of new investments and the moment they become productive, as argued, in other contexts, by either traditional macroeconomics (for instance Kalecki) or the Real Business Cycles Theory by Kydland and Prescott. Such effects are investigated in conjunction with those of the supply of labour, which is assumed to be endogenously determined according to a positive relation with the employment rate, as stated by several labour market theories. While the effect of the gestation lag alone is purely destabilizing, the joint effects of these two economic forces are able to generate a much reacher dynamics, including limit cycles as well. It is also argued that such periodic dynamics are, probably, stable when the «gestation» lag is sufficiently short, and the reaction of the labour supply to employment changes is not too large.

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