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Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal

Rodrigo A. Cerda, Hermann González and Luis Felipe Lagos
Cuadernos de Economía
Vol. 42, No. 125 (Mayo 2005), pp. 63-77
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41951630
Page Count: 15
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Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal
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Abstract

This paper identifies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on economic activity (GDP) in the Chilean economy. We use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology. The main results are: a positive fiscal expenditure shock has a negative effect on output during the first quarter; afterwards the effect dies out. A positive tax shock also has a negative marginal impact on output for one quarter. Este trabajo identifica los efectos dinámicos de la política fiscal sobre la actividad económica (PIB) en Chile. La metodología usada es de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) estructurales. Los resultados indican que un shock positivo de gasto fiscal tiene un efecto negativo sobre el producto durante el primer trimestre; pero con posterioridad el impacto del shock fiscal se desvanece. Por otro lado, un shock positivo de impuestos tiene un efecto impacto negativo, pero de muy baja magnitud, sobre el PIB, y también sólo durante un trimestre.

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