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Testing for Density Dependence Allowing for Weather Effects

Peter Rothery, Ian Newton, Lois Dale and Tomasz Wesolowski
Oecologia
Vol. 112, No. 4 (1997), pp. 518-523
Published by: Springer in cooperation with International Association for Ecology
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4221808
Page Count: 6
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Testing for Density Dependence Allowing for Weather Effects
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Abstract

A test for density dependence in time-series data allowing for weather effects is presented. The test is based on a discrete time autoregressive model for changes in population density with a covariate for the effects of weather. The distribution of the test statistic on the null hypothesis of density independence is obtained by parametric bootstrapping. A computer simulation exercise is used to demonstrate the gain in statistical power by allowing for weather effects. Application of the method to time-series data on three species of butterflies and two species of songbirds showed stronger evidence of density dependence than two standard tests.

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