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Models for the Population Dynamics of the Yellow Fever Mosquito, Aedes aegypti

Christopher Dye
Journal of Animal Ecology
Vol. 53, No. 1 (Feb., 1984), pp. 247-268
DOI: 10.2307/4355
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4355
Page Count: 22
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Models for the Population Dynamics of the Yellow Fever Mosquito, Aedes aegypti
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Abstract

(1) Analytical models are described for a field population of adult Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, and used as foundations for the development of a multi-age-class simulation model. The models bring together published and unpublished data on the larval and adult ecology of A. aegypti in Wat Samphaya, Bangkok, Thailand. (2) The most appropriate analytical model is a generalization of a continuous time model used by Gurney, Blythe & Nisbet (1980) to describe Nicholson's blowfly populations. Despite uncertainty about egg-laying rate, local stability analysis firmly predicts that the population in Wat Samphaya is monotonically stable. Equilibrium analysis predicts that adult populations will be more sensitive to changes in death rate than to changes in either birth rate or number of larval breeding sites. Accurate prediction of equilibrium population size requires good estimates of parameters (beta s) describing density-dependent mortality. (3) Results of stability analysis with the simulation model accord with those of the analytical model: observed fluctuations in adult population size are unlikely to be driven cycles, but rather due to fluctuations in adult survivorship combined with strong density-dependent larval mortality. Equilibrium analysis reinforces the conclusion that the adult population is more sensitive to changes in adult survivorship than to changes in fecundity.

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