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Sources of the New Deal Realignment: The Contributions of Conversion and Mobilization to Partisan Change

James E. Campbell
The Western Political Quarterly
Vol. 38, No. 3 (Sep., 1985), pp. 357-376
DOI: 10.2307/448520
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/448520
Page Count: 20
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Sources of the New Deal Realignment: The Contributions of Conversion and Mobilization to Partisan Change
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Abstract

This study attempts to gauge the impact of both conversion and mobilization on partisan change in the New Deal realignment. The extent of partisan change in this period is explained by the size and Democratic loyalties of pre-realignment and realignment era voters. The size of various voter cohorts is estimated from voting records and census information. The partisan loyalties of these cohorts is estimated from disaggregated Literary Digest and Gallup poll data adjusted by the actual vote returns. The fiindings generally support the mobilization hypothesis. Mobilization effects accounted for nearly two thirds of the 15.5 percent shift toward the Democratic party.

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