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Simulation of Mathematical Models for Public Health Problems

Lila Elveback and André Varma
Public Health Reports (1896-1970)
Vol. 80, No. 12 (Dec., 1965), pp. 1067-1076
DOI: 10.2307/4592614
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4592614
Page Count: 10
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Simulation of Mathematical Models for Public Health Problems
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Abstract

The increasing availability of large electronic computers has given great impetus to the use of simulation of stochastic models as a means of obtaining information, otherwise inaccessible, related to problems in public health and the medical sciences. The general nature of model building and simulation are discussed, and examples from the literature illustrate the broad range of problems in which the method already has proved useful. Using the familiar Reed-Frost epidemic model as an example, the entire process of obtaining probability distributions of total number of cases and duration is presented, along with results of the simulation procedure. An extension of the Reed-Frost model for the study of interference between viral agents is discussed.

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