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The Decling Reach Phenomenon in Exposure Distribution Models

John D. Leckenby and Marshall D. Rice
Journal of Advertising
Vol. 15, No. 3 (1986), pp. 13-20
Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4622105
Page Count: 8
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Abstract

The concept of "declining reach" is examined in the context of magazine exposure-distribution models. Declining reach occurs in media models when additional insertions to a schedule lead to lower reach than the initial schedule reach. Such an outcome is a logical impossibility and indicates a serious deficiency in any reach/frequency model. Empirical tests in this study, conducted on schedules developed by a large advertising agency, show the frequently used beta binomial distribution-direct estimation method (BBD-DE) is subject to declining reach. An alternative model, the Morgensztern sequential aggregation distribution (MSAD), is developed and tested. This new model appears to greatly reduce the declining reach problem.

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