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Annual and Long-Term Variation in the Survival Rates of British Lapwings Vanellus vanellus
W.J. Peach, P.S. Thompson and J.C. Coulson
Journal of Animal Ecology
Vol. 63, No. 1 (Jan., 1994), pp. 60-70
Published by: British Ecological Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/5583
Page Count: 11
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1. In many parts of Britain and in other parts of western Europe, the lapwing Vanellus vanellus is declining. In order to determine if the decline in numbers was associated with a reduction in adult or first-year survival rates, an analysis of British ringing recoveries was conducted. 2. There was no evidence that survival after the first year of life was age-dependent. 3. Mean annual adult survival (1930-88) is estimated at 0.705 +- 0.031 (+-95% confidence intervals). Since 1960, adult survival has increased to 0.752 +- 0.046. Two weather variables (mean winter soil temperature and total winter rainfall) explained 69% of the variation in adult survival rates between 1961 and 1979. 4. Mean first-year survival (1930-87) is estimated at 0.595 +- 0.040 (+-95% confidence intervals). As in the adults, the same two weather variables (mean winter soil temperature and total winter rainfall) explained 55% of the variation in first-year survival rates between 1959 and 1979. 5. In order to replace annual adult losses, lapwings should produce in the region of 0.83-0.97 fledglings per pair each year. From a review of the available literature, lapwings produced enough fledglings to maintain the population in only 8 out of 24 studies.
Journal of Animal Ecology © 1994 British Ecological Society