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Quarterly data on industrial production and deflated gross national product in the United States from 1947 through 1985 are decomposed into independent nonstationary trend and stationary cycle components using Kalman filtering and smoothing techniques. Estimates of the model parameters imply that at least half of the quarterly innovation in U. S. economic activity can be attributed to a stationary cyclical component that persists over periods of time as long as five years. This finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that most of the apparent variation in U. S. economic activity can be attributed to a nonstationary trend component.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics (QJE) is the oldest professional journal of economics in the English language. Edited at Harvard University's Department of Economics, it covers all aspects of the field -- from the journal's traditional emphasis on microtheory, to both empirical and theoretical macroeconomics. QJE is invaluable to professional and academic economists and students around the world.
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics
© 1987 Oxford University Press