Based on a review of the literature on demographic transition theory and documentation of preconditions to transition in Africa, the hypothesis is set forth that, excluding the transitional society, there are two kinds of situations: one in which it is economically advantageous to maximize the number of children; and one in which it is economically advantageous to minimizethe number. Arguing that child-bearing patterns in both kinds of societies are based on rational decisions, Caldwell concludes that, in the course of the coming century, fertility will almost certainly fall to low levels in most societies--even where economic growth has been slow and per capita incomes remain low--because of the massive social change leading to the nucleated family structure found in the West.
Founded in 1975, Population and Development Review seeks to advance knowledge of the interrelationships between population and socioeconomic development and provides a forum for discussion of related issues of public policy. Combining readability with scholarship, the journal draws on high-level social science expertise-in economics, anthropology, sociology, and political science-to offer challenging ideas, provocative analysis, and critical insights. Each issue includes a lively collection of book reviews and an archives section that brings to light historical writings with a resonance for contemporary population debate. Supplements to the journal also are available.
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