This research develops and examines a single-equation model of coattail seat gains. The model consists of two principal independent variables--the presidential vote and the party's strength in Congress prior to the election. Two trend variables are also used where appropriate. The model is examined on an election series from 1944 to 1980, a second series from 1900 to 1940, and a third series from 1900 to 1980. The coattail model accounts for more than 80 percent of the variance in seat changes in the 1900 to 1980 election series and more than 90 percent of the variance in both the 1900 to 1940 series and the 1944 to 1980 series. In each series the presidential vote had a strong and statistically significant effect on seat changes. All things being equal, a party can expect in recent elections a net gain of three seats in the House for every additional percentage point of the two-party vote won by the party's presidential candidate. The model proved to be quite accurate in predicting coattail seat gains in the 1984 election.
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