This paper examines midterm election results since 1902, in order to account for the regularity with which the party controlling the presidency suffers an electoral decline at midterm. Standard interpretations account for midterm loss in terms of withdrawn presidential coattails (or regression-to-the-mean), surge-and-decline, or a negative referendum on presidential performance. None of these explanations is compatable with the historical data. A "presidential penalty" explanation, however, fits the data nicely. By this explanation, the midterm electorate penalized the president's party for being the party in power: holding constant the presidential year House vote, the president's party does much worse at midterm than it would if it did not control the presidency. Some implications of this finding are examined.
Current issues are now on the Chicago Journals website. Read the latest issue. Established in 1939 and published for the Southern Political Science Association, The Journal of Politics is a leading general-interest journal of political science and the oldest regional political science journal in the United States. The scholarship published in The Journal of Politics is theoretically innovative and methodologically diverse, and comprises a blend of the various intellectual approaches that make up the discipline. The Journal of Politics features balanced treatments of research from scholars around the world, in all subfields of political science including American politics, comparative politics, international relations, political theory, and political methodology.
Since its origins in 1890 as one of the three main divisions of the University of Chicago, The University of Chicago Press has embraced as its mission the obligation to disseminate scholarship of the highest standard and to publish serious works that promote education, foster public understanding, and enrich cultural life. Today, the Journals Division publishes more than 70 journals and hardcover serials, in a wide range of academic disciplines, including the social sciences, the humanities, education, the biological and medical sciences, and the physical sciences.
This item is part of JSTOR collection
For terms and use, please refer to our Terms and Conditions
The Journal of Politics
© 1988 The University of Chicago Press
Request Permissions
