Publication selection effects arise in meta-analysis when the effect magnitude estimates are observed in (available from) only a subset of the studies that were actually conducted and the probability that an estimate is observed is related to the size of that estimate. Such selection effects can lead to substantial bias in estimates of effect magnitude. Research on the selection process suggests that much of the selection occurs because researchers, reviewers and editors view the results of studies as more conclusive when they are more highly statistically significant. This suggests a model of the selection process that depends on effect magnitude via the p-value or significance level. A model of the selection process involving a step function relating the p-value to the probability of selection is introduced in the context of a random effects model for meta-analysis. The model permits estimation of a weight function representing selection along the mean and variance of effects. Some ideas for graphical procedures and a test for publication selection are also introduced. The method is then applied to a meta-analysis of test validity studies.
The aim of Statistical Science is to present the full range of contemporary statistical thought at a technical level accessible to the broad community of practitioners, teachers, researchers, and students of statistics and probability. The journal publishes discussions of methodological and theoretical topics of current interest and importance, surveys of substantive research areas with promising statistical applications, comprehensive book reviews, discussions of classic articles from statistical literature, and interviews with distinguished statisticians and probabilists.
The purpose of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS) is to foster the development and dissemination of the theory and applications of statistics and probability. The Institute was formed at a meeting of interested persons on September 12, 1935, in Ann Arbor, Michigan, as a consequence of the feeling that the theory of statistics would be advanced by the formation of an organization of those persons especially interested in the mathematical aspects of the subject. The Annals of Statistics and The Annals of Probability (which supersede The Annals of Mathematical Statistics), Statistical Science, and The Annals of Applied Probability are the scientific journals of the Institute. These and The IMS Bulletin comprise the official journals of the Institute. The Institute has individual membership and organizational membership. Dues are paid annually and include a subscription to the newsletter of the organization, The IMS Bulletin. Members also receive priority pricing on all other IMS publications.
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Statistical Science
© 1992 Institute of Mathematical Statistics
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