We consider estimation of the long term average power output from a wind turbine generator at a site for which few data on wind speeds are available. Long term records of wind speeds at the 12 synoptic meteorological stations are also used. Inference is based on a simple and parsimonious approximating model which accounts for the main features of wind speeds in Ireland, namely seasonal effects, spatial correlation, short-memory temporal autocorrelation and long-memory temporal dependence. It synthesizes deseasonalization, kriging, ARMA modelling and fractional differencing in a natural way. A simple kriging estimator performs well as a point estimator, and good interval estimators result from the model. The resulting procedure is easy to apply in practice.
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics)
© 1989 Royal Statistical Society
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