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The present paper looks at the implications of anticipated changes in population size and composition for the projected number of deaths from natural disasters Building on empirical evidence from cross-country time series of factors associated with natural disaster fatalities since 1970 in 174 countries, the paper first highlights the major role of education in enabling people to cope with weather extremes in the past. Using the five demographic scenarios implied by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which include trajectories for the future of educational expansion, this evidence is translated in the second part of the paper into projections of the number of deaths from climate-related extreme natural events for six major world regions. Assuming constant hazard, we demonstrate the importance of including in assessments of future vulnerability not only the projected population size but the full population heterogeneity by age, sex and level of education.
The Vienna Yearbook of Population Research has been published by the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences since 2003. The Yearbook features peer-reviewed research articles addressing population trends as well as a broad range of theoretical and methodological issues in population research, particularly those relevant to developments in Austria. It also provides a scientific outlet for the demographic research community in the Vienna area and aims to bring its work to the attention of the international scientific community. In addition to research articles, the journal also publishes Demographic Debates featuring invited contributions on topics related to the ongoing scientific debates in population research. Finally, contributions on Data & Trends map long-term developments as well as recent trends in various components of population change in Austria and in Europe.
Founded in January 1973, the Austrian Academy of Sciences Press is a peer review press and focuses on Archaeology, History, Numismatics, Byzantine Studies, Asian Studies, and Social Sciences. We publish 80 to 100 new titles annually, with 3,400 titles in stock. The Press produces books, journals, databases, works of reference, CD-ROMs and audio CDs. We are a department of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, a research organization with some 1,200 staff, and are located in Vienna, Austria.
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
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