It is well known that crime rates, when examined by residential area, are positively correlated with racial composition. This is usually interpreted to mean that racial composition affects crime rates, although there is debate over why. We consider an alternative interpretation: that reciprocal causal effects exist between these two variables. The crime rate itself may change the racial composition of an area by making it a less desirable place in which to live and invest. This hypothesis is tested with longitudinal data for a national sample of suburbs for the period 1970 to 1990. We find significant and approximately equal causal effects in both directions; specifically, it is the robbery component of crime that affects racial composition. High robbery rates are associated with black population growth while stimulating white flight.
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