This paper considers tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. The results apply to a wide class of parametric models that are suitable for estimation by generalized method of moments procedures. The paper considers Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood ratio-like tests. Each test implicitly uses an estimate of a change point. The change point may be completely unknown or it may be known to lie in a restricted interval. Tests of both "pure" and "partial" structural change are discussed. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics considered here are nonstandard because the change point parameter only appears under the alternative hypothesis and not under the null. The asymptotic null distributions are found to be given by the supremum of the square of a standardized tied-down Bessel process of order p ⩾ 1, as in D. L. Hawkins (1987). Tables of critical values are provided based on this asymptotic null distribution. As tests of parameter instability, the tests considered here are shown to have nontrivial asymptotic local power against all alternatives for which the parameters are nonconstant. As tests of one-time structural change, the tests are shown to have some weak asymptotic local power optimality properties for large sample size and small significance level. The tests are found to perform quite well in a Monte Carlo experiment reported elsewhere.
Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics.
The Econometric Society is an international society for the advancement of economic theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics.
This item is part of JSTOR collection
For terms and use, please refer to our Terms and Conditions
Econometrica
© 1993 The Econometric Society
Request Permissions