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A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socioeconomic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.
From the beginning of its history the Royal Society has devoted much attention to the publication of communications by its Fellows and others. Within three years from the granting of the first Charter, Henry Oldenburg, the first Secretary, began publishing Philosophical Transactions in March 1665 and it has continued ever since. From 1887 onward, beginning with volume 178, the Transactions have been divided into two series: Series A, (Mathematics and Physical sciences) and Series B, (Biology). Transactions are published monthly and now include papers presented at Discussion Meetings as well as specific themes and reviews.
The Royal Society is a self-governing Fellowship of many of the world's most distinguished scientists drawn from all areas of science, engineering and medicine, and is the oldest scientific academy in continuous existence. The Society’s fundamental purpose, reflected in its founding Charters of the 1660s, is to recognise, promote, and support excellence in science and to encourage the development and use of science for the benefit of humanity. The Society has played a part in some of the most fundamental, significant, and life-changing discoveries in scientific history and Royal Society scientists continue to make outstanding contributions to science in many research areas.
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Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences
© 2005 Royal Society