For a region with such harsh climatic conditions, the Arctic is a fragile place. Over the last 60 years, it has warmed substantially, and over the next 60 years it will heat up considerably more, leading to significant physical, ecological, economic and social changes.¹ But the pace and degree of warming that will take place remains uncertain. Reducing the amount of disruption and damage to ecosystems and human lives therefore requires rapid and effective action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, no matter how quickly the world cuts back on emissions, a significant amount of global climate change (and Arctic...

The increasing accessibility of the Arctic Ocean due to rapidly shrinking sea ice (as outlined in the previous chapter) has sparked growing interest in exploiting the region’s natural resources. These concern predominantly:

the conventional offshore oil and gas resources located on the continental shelves of the five Arctic coastal states; and

the development of new fishing grounds in established northern fishing areas in Arctic countries’ exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and potentially also in hitherto untapped areas in the international waters of the high Arctic Ocean.

The projected economic development of the region also has major implications for the possibility of...

The challenges and opportunities embedded in the Arctic transformation discussed in the previous section have led to increasing regional and sub-regional cooperation as well as recognition of the value of coordinated international arrangements for dealing with Arctic matters. As a result, a somewhat fragmented landscape of multilateral Arctic cooperation has emerged. While developments during the last 20 years attest to growing interest in strengthening the existing governance structures, some overlaps and gaps in international regimes remain a feature of Arctic political cooperation. This chapter will map out and discuss the most relevant arrangements and institutions in Arctic governance with reference...

In 2008 Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark,² Norway, Russia and the US (the Arctic Five) agreed on the Ilulissat Declaration. The declaration confirmed the commitments of each of the five to adhere to UNCLOS and to the orderly settlement of disputes and overlapping territorial claims.³ Thus far they have kept their word. And the 2010 agreement on the Barents Sea between Norway and Russia stands out as an example of such successful cooperation. However, recent developments, especially connected with the Ukraine crisis, highlight the question of whether the proclaimed will to settle overlapping territorial claims and other disputes and other...

Russia’s central role in shaping the security agenda for the Arctic is beyond doubt, but its posture in this respect has changed significantly – and alarmingly – since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in spring 2014. From the middle of the previous decade, the Kremlin’s Arctic policy had followed a two-pronged strategy: strong emphasis on developing international cooperation on the one hand, and the sustained build-up of military capabilities on the other. Presently, Russia’s interest in building ties with the Arctic neighbours is on the wane, while the intensity of military activities has reached a new high. The climate...

When the European Security Strategy was published in 2003, the Arctic did not feature as an explicit part of the imagined threat landscape. At that time, even the Arctic states did not regard the Arctic as a source of inter-state tensions or of serious danger to national or international security. For more than a decade after the end of the Cold War, the Arctic was characterised as a zone of cooperation, shaped by shared interests in environmental protection and sustainable development, and institutionalised in circumpolar intergovernmental bodies such as the Arctic Council.

Over this period, military activity dramatically declined in...

The notion that security has (many) more dimensions than just ‘hard’ military defence has become something of a twenty-first century commonplace. Back in 1994, the Human Development Report of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) identified the economy, environment, food and health as crucial for human survival and welfare, and called for them to be guaranteed at the political (= state), community, and individual levels. In Europe, the term ‘societal’ is increasingly used as shorthand for a similar many-sided security concept adapted to developed societies.

The EU itself increasingly uses the societal word in contexts such as promoting security research, but...